U.S. and NATO leaders cite continuing Russian threat to Ukraine despite pullback claims

“We have yet to see any pullback, any withdrawal of Russian forces from around Ukraine’s borders,” Blinken said, speaking to Ukrainian television. “We’re watching that very carefully, and again, it’s very important to look at what Russia actually does, not what it says it’s doing.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday that Russia had decided on a partial withdrawal of forces, amid warnings from Western leaders that Russia will face tough sanctions if it invades.

“On the contrary, it appears that Russia continues the military buildup,” Stoltenberg said in brief remarks delivered ahead of meetings with defense ministers in Brussels. He said NATO was ready for dialogue with Russia, but he added that the alliance is “prepared for the worst.”

Asked at a news conference Tuesday whether Russia was moving forces back from Ukraine’s borders, Putin said a decision had been made on a “partial withdrawal of troops.” He declined to comment further.

In response to Stoltenberg’s comments, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov faulted the ability of NATO systems to analyze what was happening. “This, to be sure, does not give NATO representatives an opportunity to soberly assess the situation,” he said in his daily conference call with journalists.

Rochan Consulting, an independent analytical group based in Gdansk, Poland, that tracks military movements using satellite images, reported Wednesday that more military trains have arrived since Russia’s announcement that some forces were withdrawing. It said elements of Russia’s 2nd Combined Arms Army and equipment from other units continued to move toward the border.

“There is no indication that troops are being withdrawn. In fact, it is the opposite,” the report said.

Germany’s Foreign Ministry announced Wednesday that Group of Seven foreign ministers will hold crisis talks on Ukraine on the sidelines of an annual security conference in Munich this weekend.

As small groups of Ukrainians waved flags on the day of unity called by President Volodymyr Zelensky, he said his country just wants “to live in peace, happily, in a family, children with parents.”

Zelensky told Ukrainians: “No one can love our home as we can. And only we, together, can protect our home.”

Anastacia Kuleba, 27, was one of several dozen Kyiv residents who heeded Zelensky’s call to gather in “flash mobs” at 10 a.m. to sing the Ukrainian national anthem. She came to Maidan Square, the location of mass protests in Ukraine’s 2014 uprising that succeeded in ousting a pro-Kremlin government.

“Ukrainians are united,” said Kuleba, who was forced to flee the eastern city of Donetsk after Russian-backed separatists ignited a war in 2014. She said she has since lived in many parts of the country and that “my story is Ukraine’s story.”

Anastasia Kuznetsova, 24, expressed the fatigue and skepticism that many Ukrainians feel about reports that Russia could invade at any time. “Some people are celebrating,” she said, referring to the day of unity, “but really for people here, it’s just an ordinary day. Everyone is talking about war and what will happen and blah blah blah. But for people who are working, it’s all the same. Just an ordinary day.”

Kuznetsova said she doubts that Russia would invade Ukraine. “We know that nothing will happen actually,” she said. “Some magazines and whatnot are saying war will happen, but what we see now is just people trying to scare another country. But everything is calm here.”

Amid skepticism in Washington and Europe over Moscow’s claims of a partial withdrawal, Russia’s Defense Ministry on Wednesday aired video purportedly showing tanks departing Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014 and since heavily militarized.

Many analysts are focused on whether Russia withdraws its massive forces and weaponry from Belarus, north of Ukraine, after joint Russian-Belarusian exercises end Sunday — and whether the Russian troops take all their military equipment with them.

“Not a single Russian serviceman, not a single piece of equipment will remain in Belarus after the completion of exercises with Russia,” Belarusian Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei said Wednesday in a news conference in Minsk.

Peskov said Putin showed his readiness to negotiate in his meetings with Western leaders over the Ukraine crisis and Russia’s demands for sweeping security guarantees that would alter the European security balance and give Russia a veto over the security alliances of smaller neighbors, ending NATO expansion.

“The president is continuing to give explanations to the entire world. He has done so repeatedly over the past week,” Peskov said Wednesday.

Putin said Tuesday that what happens next depends on the responses of Washington and NATO to Moscow’s demands. His statement on partial troop withdrawals coincided with a string of disruptive cyberattacks Tuesday on Ukrainian government and banking websites. Ukrainian authorities have not said who was responsible for the attacks, which hit the Defense Ministry and two major banks. But analysts have warned that Russian cyberattacks could precede a conventional military attack.

Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense announced Wednesday that the cyberattacks were continuing, but Peskov denied any Russian role.

“We don’t know anything,” he said. “And, as expected, Ukraine continues to accuse [Russia] of everything. Russia nothing to do with any DDoS attacks,” he added, referring to distributed denial-of-service attacks.

President Biden, in a national address Tuesday from the White House, warned of the “incredible human suffering that would follow” any renewed Russian invasion of its smaller neighbor. While he welcomed reports by Moscow that some military units were leaving their positions near Ukraine, he said U.S. analysts have indicated that “they remain very much in a threatening position.”

Biden also said Russia now has more than 150,000 troops around Ukraine — a significant increase from the previous estimate of roughly 130,000.

In Ukraine’s trenches: Soviet relics, video games and hope for more Western weapons

Russia has been supporting separatists in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions since 2014, the same year it annexed Crimea from its neighbor. On Tuesday, the State Duma, Russia’s lower house of parliament, appealed to Putin to recognize the contested territories as independent states.

Blinken pushed back strongly Wednesday against the Duma’s appeal, saying in a statement that Kremlin acceptance of it would amount to Russia’s “wholesale rejection” of its previous commitments and “constitute a gross violation of international law.” He said such a move would also contradict Russian pledges to pursue a diplomatic resolution of the Ukraine crisis and would bring “a swift and firm response from the United States in full coordination with our Allies and partners.”

Peskov acknowledged Tuesday that recognizing the separatist enclaves would breach a 2015 deal designed to bring peace to the region, the second of two accords known as the Minsk agreements.

“As long as the Kremlin considers it necessary to confirm its commitment to the Minsk agreements, this cannot happen,” he said. But a day after Putin accused Ukraine of “genocide” in the separatist republics, Peskov said the risk of a Ukrainian attack on them was high.

The European Union called for “concrete” steps from Moscow to de-escalate Wednesday.

“Our call on Russia is crystal clear: Do not choose war,” European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen said in her remarks at the European parliament plenary session on European-Russian relations. “On the one hand, authorities announce Russian troop pullbacks. On the other hand, the Duma votes for the formal recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent republics,” she said.

“We urge Russia to take concrete and tangible steps towards de-escalation,” European Council President Charles Michel told lawmakers Wednesday, according to Agence France-Presse. He added that allies “cannot eternally attempt diplomacy on one side, while the other side is massing troops.”

At a news conference Tuesday, Stoltenberg said that since last spring, Russia has moved combat forces around but left military equipment behind — allowing it to “quickly reinforce” and bring troops back again if needed.

Ukrainian officials also were skeptical of the Kremlin’s claims. “Russia keeps making statements of various kinds, so we have a rule: We believe it when we see it, not when we hear about it. We will believe de-escalation when we see their withdrawal,” Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told journalists in Kyiv.

Russia’s Defense Ministry released photos and video footage on Tuesday apparently showing lines of tanks returning to their bases after military exercises near Ukraine. But military analysts said some of the troop movements Putin spoke of were too far from the Ukraine border to begin with to pose a threat.

“Right now it’s unclear if Russian signaling is a genuine sign of de-escalation, or an attempt to recapture the narrative,” wrote Michael Kofman, an expert on Russia at CNA (Center for Naval Analyses) in Arlington, Va., on Twitter.

“I’ve not seen any evidence in terms of force posture that suggests de-escalation. Even if a few BTGs [battalion tactical groups] do depart from Crimea, it doesn’t change the overall picture,” he tweeted.

What’s happening in the Ukraine-Russia crisis

Moscow has demanded Kyiv implement the terms of a 2015 peace deal over the disputed region, brokered by Paris and Berlin. U.S. and European officials say Russia has not lived up to its side of the deal.

In a news conference Tuesday with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Moscow, Putin said Russia does not want war and is willing to talk to the United States and NATO about the Kremlin’s demands for security guarantees, but only if its key concerns are central to negotiations. Those include Moscow’s calls for an end to NATO expansion and the removal of NATO forces and equipment from Eastern Europe.

The United States and NATO have said the alliance’s open-door policy is nonnegotiable, but they have offered proposals on arms control and limiting military exercises.

“No one but Ukraine and NATO members should have a say in the discussions about Ukraine’s future NATO membership,” Kuleba, the Ukrainian top diplomat, said Tuesday.

As they continue to pursue diplomatic options to prevent a Russian invasion of Ukraine, Washington and its allies have also pledged the strictest sanctions Moscow has ever faced should it attack.

Despite support from both sides of the political aisle for swift retaliation in the event of an attack, U.S. negotiations on sanctions have not been completed. A number of Senate Republicans introduced legislation Tuesday that would halt construction of the Nord Stream 2 energy pipeline between Russia and Germany and impose sanctions on major Russian banks — in line with pledges made by the Biden administration.

But the bill was dismissed as “political posturing” by Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.), chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, who has been working on a bipartisan bill.

“It’s a shame that Senate Republicans have decided to choose partisan posturing instead of working to reach consensus on a comprehensive bipartisan proposal that would demonstrate a united front to deter Putin from re-invading Ukraine,” Menendez said in a statement Tuesday. “The latest proposal by Republicans is largely a reflection of what Democrats had already agreed to in our ongoing conversations, building off of the ‘mother of all sanctions’ we initially proposed.”

Pannett reported from Sydney and Rauhala from Brussels. Isabelle Khurshudyan and Steve Hendrix in Kyiv and Mary Ilyushina in Minsk contributed to this report.