Russia-Ukraine live updates: Russian forces may stay in Belarus; Biden to convene NSC about threat of war

After years of peace, villagers in Ukraine’s Donbas region are enduring a sharp increase in shelling from separatists and fear that a Russian invasion could be next. The escalation began in the village of Stanytsia Luhanska on Feb. 17, when artillery hit a local kindergarten.

Water services to more than 1 million people have been disrupted by the escalating hostilities in eastern Ukraine, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) said Saturday as it appealed to all sides to “critical civilian infrastructure.”

In a statement, the organization said it was “very concerned” about the situation in eastern Ukraine and that at least two major water pumping stations had been “rendered inoperable” by the fighting. Both stations are in the Donetsk region and serve residents on either side of the line of contact, the group said. Donetsk is a Russian-backed breakaway state in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region.

The disruption would likely impact “key essential services,” including hospitals, where operations could come to a complete stop, the organization warned. The committee noted that urgent repairs were needed but would take time to complete.

Florence Gillette, the ICRC’s head of delegation in Ukraine said that “civilian infrastructure providing essential services, and civilian personnel who operate, maintain and repair that infrastructure are protected under International Humanitarian Law.”

The organization said it would be working closely with the water company to attempt to restore supplies and that it would also consider emergency solutions, such as using water tankers to provide water to affected communities.

Over the past eight years, communities on either side of the line have regularly been impacted by disruptions to water, gas and power for days or even weeks, according to the ICRC.

Intelligence reports indicate that Russia is planning for a war unlike any experienced on the European continent since the end of World War II, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on the sidelines of a security conference in Munich.

“I’m afraid to say that the plan we’re seeing is for something that could be really the biggest war in Europe since 1945 just in terms of sheer scale,” Boris Johnson told the British Broadcasting Corp. in an interview that aired Sunday.

“You’re looking at not just an invasion through the east, through the Donbas, but according to the intelligence that we’re seeing, coming down from the north, down from Belarus and actually encircling Kyiv itself,” he said, adding: “I think people need to understand the sheer cost in human life that could entail.”

The remarks come as the United States is sounding its most dire warnings yet about the likelihood of a resumed Russian invasion of Ukraine. Johnson said President Biden had briefed him and other officials Saturday night.

The United States asserts that Russia has massed as many as 190,000 troops in and around Ukraine, or nearly double the 100,000 estimated in late January. President Biden warned Friday that Russia could launch a military attack on Ukraine “in the coming days.”

U.K. Foreign Secretary Liz Truss sounded similar warnings to the United States in Munich on Saturday, asserting that Ukraine’s “worst-case scenario” — a Russian invasion — “could happen as early as next week.”

MOSCOW — The manufactured war scare mounted by Moscow-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine — using potentially 700,000 people as props — unraveled quickly.

Its centerpiece was a staged mass evacuation of women, children and elderly residents of breakaway regions, touching off long lines at ATMs and gas stations on Friday. Russian state TV went all out on the fake war, airing film of buses leaving, arrests of alleged spies and grainy video of “saboteurs,” playing off President Vladimir Putin’s claim on Tuesday that “genocide” was unfolding.

So far, however, the false-flag effort appeared neither particularly sophisticated — nor very convincing. Residents of the separatist republics were as skeptical as anyone about the claims of that Ukrainian forces were ready to attack and try to reclaim the territory in its eight-year war with Russian-backed separatist fighters.

The evacuation story — and separatists’ claims that Ukraine was planning to attack — sparked fears that Russia will use this as a pretext to invade Ukraine. Ukrainian officials deny that their nation has staged attacks, or any plans to do so. Instead, they report that separatist forces have stepped up shelling into Ukraine, possibly hoping to provoke Ukrainian retaliation.

State Department spokesman Ned Price expressed skepticism Saturday about Russian reports of a car bombing in a separatist-controlled region in eastern Ukraine, pointing to evidence of continued Russian disinformation campaigns to fabricate a pretext for an invasion of Ukraine.

Russian-backed news agencies said the vehicle belonged to a top official in a separatist group. The vehicle was unoccupied at the time, and nobody was hurt in the explosion, Reuters reported.

“We are seeing more evidence of Russian disinformation being used as pretext for a potential Russian attack on Ukraine,” Price wrote on Twitter on Saturday. “Today, locals in Donetsk reported calm despite Russian claims of a car bomb.”

President Biden said Friday that his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, has “made the decision” to strike Ukraine, warning of Kremlin-orchestrated false-flag operations in the coming days as pretext for an attack. Speaking at a security conference in Munich on Saturday, Vice President Harris echoed those warnings.

“There is a playbook of Russian aggression,” Harris told the heads of state and government, foreign dignitaries and a large delegation from the United States. “And this playbook is too familiar for us all. Russia will plead ignorance and innocence. It will create a false pretext for invasion. And it will amass troops and firepower in plain sight.”

Even Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky — who has previously expressed frustration that the grim predictions from U.S. military and intelligence officials about an imminent invasion are damaging Ukraine’s economy — on Saturday conceded that troops Putin had built up along the border were on the lookout for any exploitable provocation, and that “one shelling, one cannon fire, can lead to war.”

MUNICH — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky forcefully demanded stronger actions from world leaders as the threat of full-scale attack by Russia intensifies amid increased shelling in the eastern separatist regions of his country.

“The security architecture of our world is brittle, it is obsolete,” Zelensky said on Saturday, during a defiant speech at a security conference in Munich. He accused governments of “egotism,” “arrogance” and “irresponsibility” as he urged Western leaders to publicly state their plans for sanctions on Russia, saying that after the war begins would be too late.

“Action is needed,” he insisted, adding that “this is not about war in Ukraine, this is about war in Europe.”

Zelensky’s rebuke of Kyiv’s allies comes as the United States is sounding its most dire warnings yet about the likelihood of a resumed Russian invasion of Ukraine, and as fresh shelling prompts new turmoil — and finger-pointing — in the country’s east.

Mekhennet and Hudson reported from Munich, and Demirjian and Nakashima reported from Washington.

Will he or won’t he?

That’s the question the world is asking about whether Russian President Vladimir Putin plans to invade Ukraine.

U.S. officials have said that a full-scale invasion by Russian troops is imminent. In a televised address Friday, President Biden said that he was “convinced” Putin had made the decision to invade and would attack in a matter of days.

Here’s what we know about why Russia might want to invade Ukraine.